Regarding hurricane seasons, and other fairy tales...

Anyone else remember last summer? You know, the one that due to global warming was supposed to be worse than the previous summer that had brought us Rita and Katrina? The one that forecasters said was supposed to have a hurricane season, the effects of which were be nearly biblically catastrophic?

"For the 2006 north Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA is predicting 13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to six could become 'major' hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher," added retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

A total of nine storms were named during the 2006 hurricane season, with only five of those reaching hurricane-velocity winds, and only one which reached Category 3 status.

None of which hit land.

Now those pontifical prognosticators are at it again:

With El Niño weakening, the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season will be "very active," according to pioneering hurricane forecaster William Gray, of Colorado State University, and colleague Philip Klotzbach.

Gray, head of the university's Tropical Meteorology Project, on Tuesday released an updated forecast of hurricane formation and landfall probability.

"We were very lucky last year," Gray said in a statement.

"In 2006 we didn't have any landfall of hurricanes," he said. "So we were very fortunate. But this year we feel the odds are above average for landfall because we are in this active era in the Atlantic. Water temperatures are warm and the El Niño effect that acted to reduce the storms last year has pretty well dissipated now

Well, I suppose they gotta be right one of these years, as even a stopped clock is right at least twice a day.

(h/t Ray)

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